Population Model Rosy Apple Aphid
This population model for the rosy apple aphid (Dysaphis plantaginea) is a temperature sum model, the basics of which were developed in Switzerland in the 80s and 2000s and are used today in the SOPRA information system https://www.sopra.admin.ch
First, the hatching of the nymphs from the winter eggs is simulated. This is done using a time-varying distributed delay model according to Manetsch 1976. The underlying assumptions are a minimum development temperature of 4 ° C and an average temperature sum of 140 degree days (Graf, Höpli, Höhn and Samietz 2006).
Then the development of the nymphs to the fundatrices (adults) is simulated with the same approach. The corresponding parameters come from the studies by Graf, Baumgärtner and Delucchi 1985.
The transition from the winter eggs to the nymphs and from the nymphs to the fundatrices (adults) is given in %. So the graph shows the proportion of nymphs that have hatched at a certain point in time, and the proportion of nymphs that have already developed into adults.
In contrast, the weaning of the first generation of young lice by the mother is given in absolute numbers. The number of young lice shown represents the offspring of 100 adults. Only the first generation of young lice is simulated.
Manetsch TJ (1976) Time-varying distributed delays and their use in aggregative models of large systems. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics 6: 547–553.
Graf B, Baumgärtner J & Delucchi V (1985) Life table statistics of three apple aphids, Dysaphis plantaginea, Rhopalosiphum insertum
and Aphis pomi (Homoptera, Aphididae), at constant temperatures. Journal of Applied Entomology 99: 285–294.
Graf, B., Höpli, H.U., Höhn, H., Samietz, J., 2006. Temperature effects on eggdevelopment of the rosy apple aphid and forecasting of egg hatch. EntomologiaExperimentalis et Applicata 119, 207–211.